Betting On Favourites
Many horseplayers dismiss horses that went off as the post-time favorite and lost in their previous race. Often these horses are not worth playing back, yet there are occasions when they are worth backing.
In my early data collection, I looked at all beaten favorites, regardless of lengths behind, finish position, or any other factors. The raw results were encouraging as shown in the table above. The win rate was 23 percent and a straight win bet on these horses was showing a loss of only 5.4 percent. This is still better than playing the post-time favorite in every race, but we can do better!
Betting On Big Favorites
When we start looking at horses that finished second, third or fourth in their last race, the results start to show even more promise. Horses that failed as a favorite and finished second in that race show a much better win percentage at just about 32 percent and a small loss of -2.0 percent. (In this study, the initial 1,287 horses showed pitiful results at fifth place and beyond, so those horses were no longer tracked.)
By further filtering the second-place finishers in their last race, we arrive at what makes this a solid spot play:
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- The horse must have been the post-time favorite in its last race, which was at least three weeks (21 days) ago.
- Horse must have finished second in its last race and been beaten by no more than four lengths.
- The horse must show that it has finished in the money at today’s race distance and over today’s surface (dirt, all-weather, turf).
- The horse must show a win percentage of 10% or greater over the course of its lifetime and in the last two years (both individually or combined).
- The horse must be dropping in class today.
- If there is more than one contender that meets the above criteria, play the horse that was beaten by fewer lengths last time out.
There can be any number of reasons that the horse lost as the favorite last out. Be sure to check the comments and see if the horse experienced a troubled trip. Quite possibly the horse may have stepped up in class and finds itself back at the right level today. Perhaps the pace was too fast for a horse that is a one-dimensional frontrunner.
While this angle typically produces short-priced plays, it does hit over half of the time. This is an excellent angle to use when keying a horse in an exacta or trifecta and/or when singling a horse in a multi-race wager such as a daily double or Pick 3, 4, 5 or 6. By coupling use of this spot play with your normal race handicapping and pace analysis, you will find that it hits consistently.
How to Place Bet on Favorites for a Living
The best way to profit from place betting is to compound the returns from a betting system with a very high strike rate (around 90%). This place betting system is perfect for this and can be easily applied with just a basic form guide (no computer required).
Discover the secrets to turning $15 very safely into $157.28 by putting 5 highly secure place bets on favourites.Current Sb Line
Guaranteed Horse Betting Profits - even if you've never placed a bet before in your life!
Betting On Favourites Reddit
'I made $6,854 from $17 - and now everyone (including my boss) is begging me to reveal my secret! Please hide your website' - Comrie Graham, Sydney.Click here to order or get more details
Note: The comments referred to above have been sourced from the vendors web site (which can be referred to via the above link for more information).
Not only does the above place betting eBook provide you with a great betting system but it is also a great introduction to betting. Below is a list of what is covered:
- Chapter One: Tells you how to read form guides, explains the different bet types and discusses the psychology of betting.
- Chapter Two: Discuses betting markets and introduces the main factors that affect your chances of wining.
- Chapter Three: Explains in detail the betting system rules for the How to Place Bet on Favorites for a Living method and concludes with over 5 pages on staking.
Finally there is a bonus chapter on how to use the place bet selections to make trifecta bets!
While the above place betting system does not require the use of a computer, we have been able to analyse the method in our Bet Selector Ultimate software. In doing so we have found that it works very well on the more popular Saturday Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane meetings where the strike rate last year (2012) was 89%. If you want to check this betting system out for yourself then please read the following notes in conjunction with Chapter 3 of the eBook:
- Substantial Gap Rule: In regards to this rule (page 20), we have found a figure of 3.0 works well.
- Track Condition Rule: Our suggestion is to replace this rule (Rule 5, page 21) by the modification mentioned in the last sentence of Variation 3 (page 22).
This betting system works so well that you can even increase betting activity without any reduction in strike rate by relaxing some of the rules a little (eg rules 1, 2 and 6) . Note this is because of the superior results on Saturday Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane meetings but please note if you wish to apply the method to other days of the week or to non-metrops you should be more careful about relaxing any of the rules (indeed you may find you need to tighten some).
Bonus Rule: The betting systems strike rate can be increased by around 4% if the horse is also required to be favorite in the early market (as sourced from Bet Selector or your Friday newspaper form guide).
A History of Place Betting Systems
Back in the early 90s we devised a much more complicated place betting system that produced similar results to the above method. It used last minute win tote approximates to predict first, second and third place probabilities and in turn the total predicted place chances - it then used these to target place bets predicted to have at least an 80% chance and at least 10% over the odds. Quite often this betting system identified horses predicted to be as short as $1.05 yet paying $1.20 or more - which was a massive overlay in percentage terms. This method was successful because punters shy away from short priced dividends and not surprisingly it was independently reviewed by Punter's Choice as 'matching claimed strike rates with consistent profits emerging'. The How to Place Bet on Favorites betting system above works for the same reasons but is now our recommended approach to place betting as it is so much easier to apply.
Note: Place betting systems by definition only collect when a runner finishes first, second or third in fields of 8 or more runners (or 7 in the event of a late scratching). In fields of 5, 6 or 7 (or 4 in the event of a late scratching) place dividends are only paid for first and second while with 4 or less starters no place dividends are paid. This applies in most parts of the world but in North America a bet that pays up to third place is called a 'show' bet while a 'place' bet only pays for first and second.
Our older method of calculating place probabilities was part of our Place Odds Calculator software first released for $1,995 in 1995. It was reviewed by Punter's Choice as 'an exciting product' and 'capable of making accurate assessments of reasonably precise and profitable place odds' - it is no longer available as a separate program but the same calculations are now incorporated in the Tote Pro part of our Bet Selector Gold software which is now free via the instructions below and includes a free copy of our Place Odds and Trifecta Report that describes the mathematics in more detail.