How To Calculate True Odds In Soccer

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True odds of 1.39 (value calculator probability of 71.75%). Market odds of 1.72 (Betfair).Sporting Kansas City vs Vancouver Whitecaps – Under 3.5 Goals (back)-True odds of 1.29 (value calculator probability of 77.67%). Market odds of 1.44 (Betfair) Is this inconsistent? To calculate “+” odds, divide the odds by 100 and multiply that product by the amount of the wager. A $50 bet on the Tampa Bay Rays, for instance, would calculate as 140/100 (which yields 1.4. The sportsbook can only use their manipulated odds if all of your bets come in at -110. If you select a single bet that is not -110, then the sportsbook is forced to calculate the true odds. This can definitely make a big impact in your long-term profits. The Football Odds Calculator is a free tool to estimate fair odds for soccer bets. Method of calculation: Mathematical football predictions are based on 1x2 odds. We analyse 1x2 closing odds from the past and can predict expected and fair odds for any real or virtual soccer game. To achieve this it helps greatly if you can compile and calculate your own odds.' - Pete Nordsted Below we will be explaining a simple method that you can use to price up a match yourself.

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The margin a bookmaker applies on the betting odds is the number one information a bettor should know in order to increase long-term profits, with lower margins favoring the bettor and larger margins eating into betting profits. Here’s a simple guide on how to calculate margins on 1X2 odds.

While novice bettors tend to compare odds, smart bettors know that the real price a bookmaker is charging is the betting odds’ margins - our Margin Calculator offers a simple way to calculate the margin applied to a bet.

Let’s take an example of a soccer game with three possible outcomes (home team to win, away team to win, draw). For the first week of the Premier League 2016/17 season, Pinnacle offered an opening price of 3.41 for Hull City to win at the KCOM Stadium against Leicester City, who were priced at 2.39, with the draw set at 3.19.

Outcome	Odds
Hull City to win	3.41
Leicester City to win	2.39
Draw	3.19

Calculating 1X2 odds’ margin in two simple steps

1.Convert the odds for all three possible outcomes into decimal probability

2. Solve for the equation:

Margin = (1/Home Odds) + (1/Away Odds) + (1/Draw Odds) – 1

Step One: The first step in calculating margins on 1X2 odds is to convert each 1X2 market into a decimal chance of winning. That’s the equation inside each set of brackets above: (1/Odds).

For the home team, in this case Hull City, the decimal probability is (1/3.41) = 0.293 (which symbolises a 29.3% chance of winning), while the draw is (1/3.19) = 0.313 and Leicester is (1/2.39) = 0.418.

Outcome	Odds	Decimal probability
Hull City to win	3.41	0.293
Leicester City to win	2.39	0.418
Draw	3.19	0.313

Step Two: Now simply substitute the numbers above into the rest of the formula to calculate the margin.

Margin = (0.293) + (0.418) + (0.313) – 1. Therefore the margin is 0.024 – or 2.4%.

Comparing bookmaker’s margin

The same game sees another popular bookmaker offer odds for Hull City at 3.10, Leicester at 2.10 and a draw 2.90. This works out to a huge margin of 12%, which is more than five times more expensive than Pinnacle.

In practical terms, this means that if you had placed a $100 bet on Hull City to win on the 1X2 market you would have won $31 more playing with Pinnacle than by placing the same bet with another major online bookmaker.

At Pinnacle, we don't just believe that it is important to offer the best odds; we are also on a mission to educate bettors on how to make more sophisticated decisions. But don't take our word for it. We encourage you to check our margins and compare us to other bookmakers, before deciding what is the best sports betting deal online.

Due to our unique risk management model, we are able to offer better value than other bookmakers. This is why Pinnacle is the number one choice for sharp bettors.

Click Here for our 2-Way No-Vig Calculator

The calculator to the left can be used to remove vig from 3-way markets such as 1X2 used in football (soccer) and sometimes hockey. In other words it can be used to handicap the market price for sports where there is the option to bet on Home, Visitor, or Draw. This calculator supports both European decimal odds and American moneyline odds. Simply enter the set of odds the bookmaker is giving you for all three betting options to see the no-vig fair market price and win probabilities.

Best Use of This Calculator

For football (soccer) the betting website offering the best odds on average is www.188bet.com (for 3-way hockey markets I would suggest using www.5dimes.eu instead for what is about to be shown). However, there are certainly times where Euro bookmakers are competitive on certain matches or other Asian bookies have a difference of opinion. Let’s say you notice that 188Bet has odds for an English Premier League match as Manchester United 1.806, Newcastle United 5.20 and Draw 3.65. After shopping the odds with the usual suspects you see 188Bet’s odds are best for most options with just one exception… BetOnline is offering Draw at 3.75. You’re now curious because you realize BetOnline is a very popular “recreational” sportsbooks that is mostly known as US betting site (servicing mostly punters from the United States and therefore not EPL specialists). You also know more often than not www.188bet.com has the best odds – and that due to their high betting limits and reduced margins (less juice/bookmaker advantage) they can’t afford to offer +EV bets. So here you feel chances are pretty good 188Bet has the correct odds while BetOnline is catering to recreational punters. So this is where our tool comes in, we can use it to determine if 188bet’s odds of 1.806, 5.20 and 3.65 are correct: does draw at 3.75 have value? Entering those all into the calculator I see the no-vig price on Draw is 3.7226 and therefore 3.75 at BetOnline is higher so this is very likely a +EV bet.

How to Remove Vig

Although our betting tool does the math for you, for those interested in the specifics on how to remove vig allow me to break this down for you. The math is to first convert the odds to implied probabilities, using the formula risk/return=implied probability. As we’re dealing with decimal odds we can keep it simple and make the risk amount 1 in which case our return is the same as the odds.

To use the previous shared example the math would look like this:

Manchester United 1.806 is 1/1.806= 0.5537 (55.37%)
Newcastle United 5.20 is 1/5.2= 0.1923 (19.23%)
Draw 3.65 is 1/3.65=0.2740 (27.40%)

Now understand implied probability refers to how often the selection must win in order to break even. If we were to add the implied probability of all three options we see 55.37+19.23+27.40=102.0%. The reason the total exceeds 100% is because the bookmaker has an advantage called vig. To remove this vig we simply divide all implied probabilities by the overall percent market (in this case 102%). The math for this appears below:

Manchester United 55.37% is 55.37/102=0.5429 (54.29%)
Newcastle United 19.23% is 19.23/102=0.1885 (18.85%)
Draw 27.40% is 27.4/102=0.2686 (26.86%)

You’ll now see 54.29+18.85+26.86 = 100%. The vig has been removed and what we now have is our no-vig win probabilities. Our final step is to convert these back into European decimal odds. Here we can either use our website’s odds converter tool, or we can do out the math. To do the math we first change our percentage back to a decimal (example 18.85% is 0.1885) and then use the formula (1/probability=European Odds). The math for each is as follows:

Manchester United 54.29% is 1/0.5429=1.842
Newcastle United 18.85% is 1/0.1885=5.305
Draw 26.86% is 1/0.2686=3.723

The above odds are the fair no-vig decimal odds. If we believe the odds we started with are accurate with vig distributed evenly all we need to do now is find any recreational betting site offering better odds than any of these figures to have a +EV (positive expected value) wager. Keep in mind www.188bet.com offers by far the best odds in the industry while you can find off market odds at recreational sportsbooks. Using our tool to remove vig from 188Bet’s odds and then shopping as many recreational betting sites as possible looking for a line to beat them, is a great way to make long term sports betting profits.

How To Figure Odds Calculator