Super Bowl Bets
Find all Super Bowl odds, bets, and stats in one convenient location and place safe and legal bets on the Super Bowl. The Super Bowl and all it's post-game festivities likely won't end until past midnight. That's well past President Biden's bedtime. The value is on 'no,' and that seems like the better bet in general.
The Super Bowl marks the biggest betting event of the year in the US. With Super Bowl LV wrapped up, bettors can already start looking ahead to next year’s NFL championship game.
Betting on the Super Bowl marks one of the most popular sports bets that fans make every year. Because it is one of the most-watched and wagered events in the country, oddsmakers are very careful where they place their lines. Understanding NFL Super Bowl odds is important for every budding sports bettor.
Sportsbooks use a host of different factors to include in NFL odds. Such as strength of schedule, previous season success, additions on the roster, and past history to show the likelihood to win the big game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers routed the Kansas City Cheifs in the 2021 Super Bowl, as the Bucs cruised to a 31-9 win. Sportsbooks oddsmakers installed Kansas City as the favorite, with average odds sitting at -171.
The Tom Brady-backed Buccaneers went into the big game as the underdog. Books set those odds at +147, giving Tampa Bay a 40% chance at the 2021 Vince Lombardi Trophy. Bettors who took that line cashed in big.
Current Super Bowl 2022 NFL Future Odds
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Odds are automatically updated 1 time per day
Best Super Bowl 2022 US Sports Betting Bonuses & Offers
Super Bowl LVI might be months away, but you can expect legal US sportsbooks to offer plenty of enticing bonuses when next year’s big game comes around. For now, Bonus.com recommends the following online sportsbooks and welcome bonus offers for new players:
FanDuel Sportsbook – Claim the FanDuel Sportsbook $1,000 Risk-Free Bet
William Hill Sportsbook – Claim the William Hill $500 Risk-Free Bet
BetMGM Sportsbook –Claim the BetMGM $600 Risk-Free Bet
BetRivers – Claim the BetRivers 100% Deposit Match Bonus up to $250
DraftKings Sportsbook – Claim the Draftkings Sportsbook 20% Deposit Match up to $1,000
Odds To Win The Super Bowl – When Was There The Most Value?
Super Bowl odds always change throughout the season. Be sure to check continually for updates as well as use our automated chart to track the changes in 7, 14, and 21-day intervals. The NFL futures odds are updated daily.
Sportsbooks install futures odds on next year’s championship as soon as the Super Bowl ends. For instance, DraftKings Sportsbook already sets the Chiefs (+550) as the Super Bowl LVI favorite, followed by the Buccaneers (+900) and Green Bay Packers (+1200).
Now that the Super Bowl champion is decided, let us see how the odds went in totality. This is to say, when should we have bet on the Chiefs and when should we have bet on the Buccaneers. Keeping track of these odds is crucial during season-long bets because buying stock in these teams (placing bets) is how you increase profitability. There was plenty of value on these teams at points if timed correctly.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2800
You read that correctly, when Tom Brady signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, BetMGM had the Buccaneers at +2800. That means that a $10 dollar bet would net you $280 in profit on the Bucs Super Bowl win.
During the season, the Buccaneers fluctuated greatly. However, during week 11, the Buccaneers were as high as +1650 to win the Super Bowl, a phenomenal value that late in the season.
Kansas City Chiefs +600
The Chiefs were an uphill battle when betting the Super Bowl since their week 3 dominating win over the Ravens. The Ravens came in at +500 to win the Super Bowl prior to the season. When the Chiefs came out motivated and dominated the Ravens, they plummeted from +600 to under +400 at some books.
Overall, it would appear that the best time to bet a team to win the Super Bowl is prior to the season. This is easier said than done obviously. However, the Chiefs’ odds dropped considerably once the season started. Looking at the schedule for a favorite and projecting how many wins they will have is very important.
COVID-19 Affecting Gameplay
The 2021 Super Bowl odds changed dramatically as the nation learned how COVID-19 affected gameplay throughout the season. The NFL powered through the 2020-21 schedule, however, sometimes rescheduling games for Tuesdays and even Wednesdays in reaction to positive COVID-19 tests.
The NFL experienced plenty of positive tests this season for COVID-19. The league’s proactive stance in attempting to contact trace to stop the spread and save games played out as a very successful tactic for the NFL.
Super Bowl Bets Las Vegas
There were some pitfalls, however, as they contemplated canceling games. At one point, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported via Twitter that the NFL considered adding a Week 18. The details of how week 18 would have played out are still unknown. What we do know, is that the NFL ultimately didn’t need a Week 18.
While the NFL approved new protocols in the case of canceled games, it was clear that they had no interest in doing so. The NFL played the Ravens vs. Steelers game on a Wednesday when it was originally scheduled six days prior, on Thanksgiving.
Furthermore, the Broncos’ entire quarterback room was placed on the COVID-19 list making them ineligible for week 12. Many might forget this but it was the strangest game I remember in the NFL. The result was starting a wide receiver at quarterback and being embarrassed 31-3. The NFL had zero interest in canceling games.
The playoffs were not played in a bubble as the NBA did for the 2020 NBA Finals playoffs. This was rather surprising considering players were consistently testing positive for COVID-19.
The NFL did not hit many snags in the playoffs. There were not any game-changing COVID-19 positive tests. Hopefully, we’ll never see another NFL season affected by COVID-19 as much as the league experienced last season.
Where Can I Bet On The Super Bowl Online
If you want to bet on the Super Bowl online you must be located in one of the states that permit legal online sports betting.
The list of states where online sports betting is legalized changes regularly. Each of these states already has live online sportsbooks ready to take Super Bowl futures bets. Most also have retail sportsbooks for local betting.
States like New Jersey and Pennsylvania set the stage for online Super Bowl Betting early on. States like Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Tennessee, Nevada, and West Virginia all launched online sports betting. Michigan and Virginia became the two most recent states to launch online sports betting.
Each state has different sportsbooks that are legally allowed to operate in a given state. For example, BetMGM is legal in almost a dozen states, as are FanDuel and DraftKings.
Learn more in our Guide To Placing A Sports Bet Online.
How To Choose The Best Sportsbook For Super Bowl Betting
Many fans would be keen to use risk-free bet offers for a free shot at the Super Bowl winner at advantageous odds.
For instance, if you bet on the Buccaneers to win the Super Bowl before they signed Tom Brady you would get odds near +3000. These are extremely strong odds and gives your bet of $500 the chance to turn into $15,500.
It is important to differentiate which sportsbooks have the best odds. Sharps typically have multiple sportsbooks that they are registered with. They will flip between the sports betting apps to make a decision that is the most profitable.
For example, if PointsBet has the Buccaneers at +2900 but BetMGM had the odds at +2600, the seemingly small difference in odds is worth $1,500 in this particular bet.
Each sportsbook is different based on the available odds. Some charge a higher vig and some odds change because big amounts of money are being thrown around. If large wagers are placed on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl, their odds will begin to change so the books can adjust to the amount of liability.
How To Place Online Super Bowl Bets
When bettors want to wager on the Super Bowl they must first sign up for a sportsbook. It is important to take advantage of promotions that they may have going. Refer to Bonus.com’s Sportsbook Reviews to get the exclusive promotional codes and find the sportsbook right for you. Then, follow these steps:
- Step 1: Use our Online Sports Betting Guide to find the right sportsbook for you and to take advantage of the best promotions.
- Step 2: Choose your sportsbook and download the app.
- Step 3: Go to the sign-up page and register for your account.
- Step 4: Enter your first and last name as well as your email address and last four 4 of your social security number.
- Step 5: Deposit money using the promo code found in the review.
- Step 6: Tap on Sports > NFL> NFL Futures> Super Bowl Odds> Place bet.
- Step 7: Once your team wins the Super Bowl, sign in to your account options, tap withdrawal, and enjoy your payday!
Where Can I Bet On The Super Bowl In Vegas?
Las Vegas is one of the top cities for betting on sports in the country. Mobile betting is not ideal, however, as fans must go to a casino first before being able to register for a mobile sportsbook.
Vegas is known for its wide array of casinos and resorts that get herds of visitors from across the country. The plethora of options on the Vegas Strip will make the fan experience even more fun whether you are betting on live events already in progress or before gameplay. Going to Las Vegas sportsbooks to place Super Bowl bets is very common.
MGM Grand, Caesar’s Palace, and Golden Nugget are very popular Las Vegas casinos. The Westgate SuperBook, Caesars Palace, Wynn, South Point, Venetian, and many other Las Vegas casinos host sportsbooks. All of these venues offer numerous ways to bet on the NFL.
How Are Super Bowl Betting Odds Calculated?
Bettors that understand how odds are broken-down and calculated can make bets more educated. There are so many different factors that play into the Super Bowl favorites. More often than not, the best teams are going given the best odds. But this is not always the case.
Before the 2020-21 season, bookmakers placed the Chiefs and Ravens as the Super Bowl favorites, with both teams at around +600 odds. The books based Baltimore’s odds on the Ravens’ strong 14-2 regular season from the previous year, after which the Ravems were knocked out of the playoffs by the Tennessee Titans in a big upset.
Other factors will include the difficulty of their regular season schedule, additions to the roster from the previous year, and of course, the overall talent on the roster. When the Chiefs won the Super Bowl in February of 2020, they were +600 before the start of the season.
If you signed up for PointsBet Sportsbook or FanDuel Sportsbook, you were given a $500 risk-free bet. If you placed your risk-free bet on the Chiefs your $500 bet would profit $3,000 if Kansas City followed up with another Super Bowl win in 2021.
Just days after Kansas City’s Super Bowl LV loss, DraftKings Sportsbook set the Cheifs as the favorite to win Super Bowl 56. Despite the lopsided loss to the Bucs, the Chiefs clearly still hold status as the league’s most respected team according to the sportsbooks.
For more resources, check out our NFL Odds Calculator and Sports Betting Edge Table.
NFL Super Bowl LV Odds Breakdown
The Chiefs opened up as (-3) favorites for Super Bowl LV. Tom Brady played in his 10th Super Bowl which is unbelievable in and of itself. In a battle of superstars quarterbacks from different generations, Brady notched his record-setting seventh Super Bowl win.
Before the game, Bonus.com evaluated each team’s chances of covering the point spread:
Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
Kansas City Chiefs (-3)
Super Bowl Odds For The Chiefs
- The Chiefs went down 9-0 early in the first quarter against the Buffalo Bills and ended up blowing the Bills out. When tested, the Chiefs are the most explosive team I can remember seeing in all of my years of watching football.
- The only way to beat the Chiefs is to keep the ball away from Mahomes. Big plays are not going to win you games. A slow, methodical approach to the game is the only hope to beat the Chiefs.
- The Chiefs opened up as 3 point favorites in the Super Bowl and climbed to 3.5 at some books.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3)
Super Bowl Odds For The Buccaneers
- Tom Brady had three touchdown passes in the first half and looked horrific in the second half. However, he is 43 years old and has two weeks to prepare for the biggest game of his life. It has been Super Bowl or bust all year, they now have their shot.
- The Packers were the best team all season long in the NFC. Rodgers was the NFC MVP and had plenty of chances to win the game. The Bucs cannot give out those chances again. Mahomes will make them pay every time.
- The Buccaneers have the first-ever home Super Bowl. The Super Bowl will take place in Tampa Bay so there is a slight edge to having a home game. The difference should not be too large, there will not be many fans in attendance.
NFL Super Bowl Odds And Betting
Moneyline
Also known as a “straight bet” a Moneyline bet just chooses the winner of the game. When betting on the Moneyline, the odds are usually not exact. Typically there are favorites and underdogs. When the Chiefs and Buccaneers matched up for the Super Bowl, the Chiefs were around -171 and the Buccaneers +147.
When comparing NFL odds, a plus symbol means that the option is an underdog. The minus symbol means the option is a favorite to win. Moneyline betting odds with a “+” notation are relatively simple to calculate. The +147 line on the Buccaneers, for example, means a $100 wager would net $147 in profit. In other words, the $100 bet would return a total of $247 (the $147 in profit and the original $100 bet).
Point Spreads
Points spread bets or “handicap bets” are when sportsbooks put teams against a number that they must win or lose by. For the Chiefs, they were -3.5 against the Buccaneers at some sportsbooks during Super Bowl LV. Had they won by three points and you bet on -3.5, the bet would lose. Conversely, if the Buccaneers lost by three and you had +3.5, your bet would win.
Over/Under (Totals)
Betting on an Over/Under or total points bet means you are not betting on any team. If you bet over you are betting on the combined number of points between the two teams.
Bookmakers set a number, and bettors need to decide whether the game will go over or under that number. For Super Bowl LV, bookmakers set the Over/Under at 55.5, and the final combined score of 31-9 (40 total points) paid off bets on the under.
Parlays
When placing a parlay bet, you are betting on two or more things to happen. To get paid on your bet, all of the outcomes must occur in a given parlay. If you parlayed the Buccaneers to win with Under 55.5 your bet won. Conversely, if you bet Chiefs to win and Under 55.5 your bet lost, as the Chiefs losing made the parlay a losing ticket.
What Is An NFL Futures Bet?
The futures market in sports betting is a huge part of the industry. The possible bet types range from championship winners to divisional winners, and even MVP candidates.
For instance, just days after Super Bowl LV, DraftKings Sportsbooks started giving odds on next year’s Super Bowl champion. Futures bets on the Super Bowl LVI champion opened with Kansas City (+550), Tampa Bay (+900), and Green Bay (+900) among the favorites.
Super Bowl Prop Bets
Prop bets are becoming more popular in the sports betting world. And there is no more popular betting event than the Super Bowl. Super Bowl prop bets go hand-in-hand because of the creativity involved and the added excitement for a much-hyped game.
A prop bet is a bet on an occurrence or non-occurrence of an event happening in a game, match, or season.
Super Bowl LV Available Prop Bets
Most Super Bowl prop bets are set once the teams are decided for the matchup. Until then, sportsbooks might get creative about what prop bets they start to offer before that time. Due to how unique this NFL season is, the prop bets could be more creative than ever.
The sportsbooks offered several interesting prop bets for Super Bowl LV:
Odds are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
Super Bowl MVP Odds
Patrick Mahomes: +100
Tom Brady: +210
Tyreek Hill: +1200
Travis Kelce: +1300
Leonard Fournette: +2500
Clyde Ewards-Helaire: +2800
Super Bowl MVP is one of the most popular bets for the Super Bowl. Eight of the last 11 Super Bowl MVPs have been quarterbacks, as Tom Brady won the Super Bowl LV MVP award.
Coin Toss Odds
Heads – 103
Tails -103
Betting on Heads or Tails is a popular bet on the Super Bowl. This is a pure 50% bet but some books are still collecting a vig. This bet could be done anywhere anytime so the modest vig from sportsbooks is worth avoiding.
To Win Coin Toss And Game Odds
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Yes +355 No -500
Kansas City Chiefs: +205 No -265
This bet immediately popped up for me because the parlayed vigorish isn’t very high. This could be another way to get juicier odds on a team that you think will win. The Chiefs are -167 on the moneyline and the Buccaneers are +145 to win.
Total Players To Attempt A Pass
Over 2,5 Players : +165 Under 2.5 Players: -215
I didn’t see an argument for under at that price. We saw Tom Brady constantly throwback to a wide receiver throughout his years with the Patriots. Super Bowls are always going to bring out massive amounts of creativity.
Final Play Of The Game To Be A Kneel
Yes: -200 No: +159
Unless the game ends in a Hail Mary or last-second field goal attempt, it is hard to imagine the game ending in anything other than a kneel… right?
Super Bowl Bets To Make
Past Super Bowl Prop Bets
The Westgate Las Vegas, an oddsmaker, started getting creative with prop bets on the Super Bowl. Now, every sportsbook puts out Super Bowl prop bets. Even websites likeCBS Sports, which does not cover gambling regularly, cover Super Bowl prop bets.
One popular prop bet for the Super Bowl is how long it will take the singer to complete the National Anthem. Leading up to Super Bowl LIV, singer Demi Lovato sang the National Anthem for the Conor McGregor vs Floyd Mayweather fight in 2018. She clocked in at well over 2 minutes for that performance.
The expectation would be that she would do the same at the Super Bowl. Shockingly, Demi Lovato went under 2 minutes at +180 for the performance. This bet is offered every year and will assuredly be offered this year too.
NFL Season-Long Prop Bets
In addition to Super Bowl prop bets, many sportsbooks offer season-long NFL prop bets. These can be bets on a particular team or a particular player’s performances and stats over a season. In football, many of these NFL prop bets revolve around injuries.
For example, if at the start of the season, you bet on Dak Prescott to lead the league in passing yards, you were out of luck. He suffered a season-ending compound ankle fracture in Week 5.
It is impossible to bet on who will or won’t get injured. However, it is best to grab a player who is rarely injured that you believe in. Avoid players who are often injured or have soft tissue injuries regularly.
How The NFL Draft Affects Super Bowl Odds
In some cases, the NFL Draft can shift the odds one way or another. For instance, the Chiefs drafted Clyde Edwards-Helaire at the backend of the first round by the Chiefs. He ended up as a major contributor and able to help the Chiefs backfield.
This is rare, however. Teams that are competing for a title usually do not have top draft picks to get an impact player. The Chiefs would have been the favorites to win the Super Bowl preseason whether they had Edwards-Helaire or not.
Strategies For Super Bowl Betting
Alternate Lines
Using Alternate Lines can be extremely profitable when it comes to sports betting. When a line comes out from the sportsbook, it can move in many different directions. If you like the Super Bowl line at the beginning of the week, it could be wise to jump on it early with an alternate spread to increase profitability.
Fade The Public?
Super Bowl lines move all over the place because it is one of the most bet on sporting events of the year. Fading the public is a betting strategy that goes with the initial betting line that oddsmakers put out. The idea is to not follow where the public is betting and to always stick with the professionals.
What Is Middling In Sports Betting?
A betting strategy that most casual bettors would not know, Middling is a strategy that mandates multiple wagers on a game. It is not perfect but it can be quite effective. The best way to explain middling is with an example.
- You place a bet on the New York Giants at -4 vs the Dallas Cowboys
- *The line moves to Giants -7*
- You then place a second wager on the Cowboys +7.
- It is called middling because the bettor wants the best of both outcomes. They want the Cowboys to lose by less than 7 and the Giants to win by more than 4.
This will limit your financial risk and allow you to win in multiple different ways.
Betting Odds For The Super Bowl FAQ
Yes, in states with legalized sports betting. Currently, almost two dozen US states allow legal sports betting, with more than a dozen of those states offering legal online sports betting.
Some of the states that offer both land-based and online sportsbooks include Nevada, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, and more.
Office pools and other types of betting on the Super Bowl outside of legal sportsbooks are technically against the law.
In most states, you must be 21 years of age or older to bet on the Super Bowl. In New York, Montana, and Rhode Island you are legally allowed to wager at 18 years or older.
The top online sportsbooks include FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, and BetRivers, and William Hill. Every single sportsbook that you find will offer bets on the Super Bowl. The Super Bowl is the most bet on sports event of the year so any sportsbook that is not offering the Super Bowl is not a reliable online sports betting site.
Yes. Using any of the legal online sportsbooks found on this page will allow you to place any bet legally and safely. Be careful to only use sportsbooks that are legally licensed or partnered with a legal online casino. They are the most reliable for safe deposits and cashouts.
Yes. Live betting on the Super Bowl is an extremely popular and fun way to bet. In-game betting is not limited to the spread or moneyline either. You can bet on a host of prop bets and point totals throughout the game as the lines move.
Yes. Many sportsbooks have licenses to hold these types of bets. From the length of the National Anthem to the color of the Gatorade at the end of the game, everything can be bet on during the Super Bowl.
The current favorite to win Super Bowl LVI is the Kansas City Chiefs. Other favorites in the eyes of the sportsbooks include the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Green Bay Packers.
Super Bowl LV will take place on February 6th, 2022 at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, CA.
The home of the Los Angeles Rams and Los Angeles Chargers, SoFi Stadium will host the Super Bowl for the first time next year.
Super Bowl LV kicks off on Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET, with the Kansas City Chiefs looking to defend their title against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Bucs quarterback Tom Brady will be seeking his seventh ring -- and first outside of New England -- while Patrick Mahomes will be trying to earn his second in three seasons as the Chiefs' starting QB. Sunday will mark the first Super Bowl between starting QBs who have previously won a Super Bowl and an MVP award.
Our NFL team has you covered with everything you'd ever want to know for Chiefs-Buccaneers, including team previews, bold predictions and game picks. We also provide betting advice from our ESPN Chalk experts, game-plan breakdowns from our analysts and in-depth statistics from our ESPN Stats & Information team. We look at the two quarterbacks, the head coaches and some X factors as well. And to wrap it up, we'll tell you how COVID-19 protocols will impact the game Sunday.
It's all here in a handy one-stop cheat sheet. Let's dive in, starting with an overview of the exciting matchup.
Jump to:
Preview Picks Stats to know
Bold calls Quarterbacks MVP watch
Matchup Betting advice Injuries
Coaches How the teams got here
Officiating COVID protocol
Previewing Chiefs vs. Buccaneers
When: Sunday, Feb. 7 at 6:30 p.m. ET
Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Television: CBS (and ESPN Deportes)
Depth charts: Chiefs Buccaneers
Most of the pregame hype has focused on the two quarterbacks, and given their track records, you can understand why. When these two teams met in Week 12, Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady combined to throw for 807 yards and six touchdowns. Each team's star wide receiver had a multi-touchdown game, as Tampa Bay's Mike Evans scored twice late after Kansas City's Tyreek Hill racked up an unreal 269 receiving yards and three touchdowns on the way to a 27-24 Chiefs win.
It's tough to imagine this rematch turning into a defensive battle. At the same time, as I've thought more and more about this game, I've been focused more on the defensive coordinators. Tampa Bay's Todd Bowles and Kansas City's Steve Spagnuolo are two of the most creative, fertile minds in the business, and they've had two weeks to piece together creative game plans. More than anything, I've thought about how Bowles might try to accomplish what has seemingly been impossible. How on earth do you try to stop the Chiefs? -- Bill Barnwell, senior NFL writer
Read more: Barnwell's complete preview of Super Bowl LV ... First look at Chiefs-Bucs: Early picks, big questions ... Take our Super Bowl quiz
What ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) says
FPI predicts a Chiefs victory in 52.1% of its simulations by an average of 0.7 points.
Our matchup rating grades Chiefs-Buccaneers as a 98.7 on a scale of 1 to 100. It is the second-highest Super Bowl matchup rating since 2009 behind the Seahawks-Broncos matchup in 2014 (99.6). It is also the highest-rated matchup of the 2020 season, narrowly beating out the previous Chiefs-Bucs matchup in Week 12 (98.1).
The Chiefs were No. 1 in FPI this season, while the Buccaneers were No. 3. Both teams were also in the top five in overall efficiency rating.
In the preseason, the Chiefs had a 36.2% chance to make the Super Bowl per FPI, but the Buccaneers were looking at an 8.9% chance.
Who wins the game?
We asked 108 experts to weigh in on who will win.
The Chiefs were picked by 81 of them (75%).
The Buccaneers claimed 27 votes (25%).
Read more: ESPN's staff predictions ... Madden 21's simulation ... Chris Berman's pick
Key stats to know
Team stats: Chiefs Buccaneers
The Buccaneers will be the first team to play a Super Bowl in their home stadium. It will be the team's second Super Bowl appearance, and it will mark the fifth time since 2000 that a wild card has made it. Each of the previous four teams went on to win. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are in their fourth ever appearance and are trying to become the first repeat champion since the 2003-04 Patriots.
The Chiefs (303.4) and Bucs (289.1) finished 1-2 in passing yards per game during the regular season. Per Elias Sports Bureau research, this will be the first Super Bowl ever to feature the top two passing offenses in the NFL.
Kansas City generated pressure on 35.8% of opponent passing plays this season, second best in the NFL, and Brady ranked 27th in QBR under pressure (10.6). Per ESPN metrics/NFL Next Gen Stats, Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones had the second-best pass rush win rate as an interior rusher this season (20.3%), trailing only Aaron Donald. On the other side of the ball, Mahomes leads the NFL in QBR when pressured (75.6), but Tampa Bay's Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaquil Barrett both rank top-five in pass rush win rate among edge rushers this postseason.
During the regular season, the Buccaneers ran the ball by design 34% of the time, which ranked 26th in the NFL. They finished tied for 28th in rushing offense (94.9 yards per game). According to Elias, only one Super Bowl-winning team has averaged fewer than 95 rushing yards per game during the regular season (2011 Giants).
The Chiefs have allowed touchdowns on 76.6% of red zone possessions, worse than any other team in the league and the worst mark by a Super Bowl team in the past 20 years. Only five other Super Bowl defenses had a red zone efficiency at or above 60%, and their collective Super Bowl records were 0-5. Tampa Bay's Evans has nine red zone touchdown catches this season (including playoffs).
Tampa Bay's defense has produced seven takeaways this postseason. Cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting can join Rodney Harrison and Aeneas Williams as the only players to record an interception in four consecutive playoff games if he hauls one in on Sunday.
Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (418) and Buccaneers wideout Chris Godwin (398) are first and second in receiving yards when put in motion or shifted, and they are tied for the most TDs on such plays (four).
Bold predictions
Chiefs safety Tyrann Mathieu will have a pair of interceptions. He played more at safety than slot corner over the second half of the season, and he has five interceptions in his past seven games, including one against Brady and the Bucs in Week 12. -- Adam Teicher, Chiefs reporter
Bucs tight end Rob Gronkowski will catch his 13th career playoff touchdown pass from Brady, breaking a tie with Joe Montana and Jerry Rice for the most touchdowns for a duo in postseason history. Gronk hasn't caught a touchdown pass from Brady since December, but with two weeks of prep time and so much experience between the two -- plus Gronk's 106-yard performance against the Chiefs in Week 12 -- it has to happen. -- Jenna Laine, Buccaneers reporter
Brady will score four touchdowns en route to winning his fifth Super Bowl MVP. Brady has accounted for four-plus scores in five games already this season but has done so in only three career playoff games (most recently in 2011). The Chiefs, meanwhile, allowed 36 touchdowns to quarterbacks during the regular season (sixth most). The Bucs have scored at least three offensive TDs in 10 consecutive games, and with Brady at the controls, they're a decent bet to do it again Sunday. -- Mike Clay, NFL analyst
The quarterback matchup
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
If Mahomes wins, he will be the first quarterback ever to have two championships and an MVP award at 25 years old. (He'd join Emmitt Smith as the only players to do this in NFL history.) He dazzled again this season, throwing for 4,740 yards, 38 touchdowns and six interceptions en route to an 82.9 Total QBR. Excelling on off-schedule throws and slinging the deep ball, Mahomes doesn't have many weaknesses. And more bad news for the Bucs: He has won 12 straight road/neutral-site games and is 3-1 over the past three postseasons when trailing by 10 or more points. Even an early two-score lead for Tampa might not be enough to stop Mahomes.
Tom Brady, Buccaneers
Brady is playing in his 10th Super Bowl, which means he'll have started in 48% of the Super Bowls played since he came into the NFL in 2000. Seeking his seventh title, the 43-year-old will be making his third Super Bowl start since turning 40 -- no other QB has started even one at 40 or older. Brady has 33 career postseason wins, more than 28 active franchises, and has led six game-winning drives in the Super Bowl over his career, per Elias. This season, his first away from New England, he tallied 4,633 passing yards, 40 touchdown throws, 12 interceptions and a 72.6 Total QBR. His 13 TDs on throws at least 20 yards downfield are his most in a season since throwing 13 in his 2007 MVP campaign.
Read more: Let's stop the Brady-Belichick debate and just appreciate what Brady did this season ... Brady's 10 Super Bowl paths from easiest to toughest ... Mahomes vs. Brady: A clash of eras ... Mahomes could join select club of QBs to top Brady in Super Bowl ... Even Brady has limits -- and embracing them is what got him here ... Round 5 of Mahomes vs. Brady
Who wins Super Bowl MVP?
Dan Graziano, national NFL writer: Brady. I think the Chiefs' offensive line issues show up just enough to make a difference in this game, which I still expect to be high scoring. The Bucs' offense is operating at a high level right now, and Brady will make enough plays down the field to win his seventh Super Bowl title.
Mina Kimes, NFL analyst: Mahomes. Yes, he is fortunate to play with arguably the best combination of head coach, No. 1 wide receiver and tight end in the NFL -- but he is also playing behind a ramshackle offensive line that will be facing a fearsome Bucs pass rush. He's going to have to make some dazzling plays on the run to pull off the win.
Jason Reid, The Undefeated writer: Mahomes. While sharing the game's biggest stage with the greatest quarterback in NFL history, Mahomes will shut the door on one era and add a big accomplishment to his own.
Seth Wickersham, NFL writer: Pierre-Paul. Bowles' strength as a defensive coach is attacking the opponent's offensive line, and the Chiefs are thin there. JPP will have a monster game.
Field Yates, NFL analyst: Mahomes. The Bucs are going to be able to hang offensively with Kansas City, which means Mahomes needs to be at his best. And while he won the Super Bowl MVP award last year, his performance wasn't eye-popping, and I expect a stronger showing this Sunday.
Of the 108 experts who weighed in, 61 picked Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP. See all of our experts' picks.
Mahomes is the betting favorite at -120 at Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill. Brady is 9-5, while Hill and Kelce at 9-1.
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Inside the game plan
I'm keeping my eye on how Buccaneers edge rushers Pierre-Paul and Barrett match up with the Chiefs' offensive line. With the expectation that the Bucs will play more split-safety coverages on Sunday night to limit the deep-ball ability of Hill, our focus should be on the Tampa Bay defensive line. Look for Bowles to scheme isolation matchups with his front four, creating edge one-on-ones for Pierre-Paul and Barrett versus that depleted Chiefs offensive line. The idea here is to squeeze the pocket and pressure Mahomes while playing disciplined zone coverage on the back end. -- Matt Bowen, NFL analyst
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Buccaneers X factor: Devin White, LB
White recorded the second-highest pass rush win rate among off-ball linebackers this season (36%), behind only Deion Jones. But in coverage, there are questions. In the regular season, White allowed the third-most expected points added as the nearest defender to the target of all linebackers, per NFL Next Gen Stats. -- Seth Walder, analytics writer
Chiefs X factor: Andrew Wylie, OL
He's expected to shift over to right tackle with Mike Remmers moving to the left side following Eric Fisher's injury. And Wylie draws a crucial matchup on the outside, squaring off against Barrett, who ranked 10th in pass rush win rate at edge this season and has played more on that side of the line since the Bucs' bye week. Wylie ranked 16th among guards in pass block win rate, but it's a different game outside, especially against a high-end pass rusher. -- Walder
Read more: Bowen's complete game-plan breakdown ... Ranking Chiefs and Bucs players ... Why Brady must locate Mathieu on every play ... The secret to Eric Bieniemy's unstoppable offense ... Smoked Sausage, Black Pearl, Ferrari Right: How Chiefs name their wild plays
How to bet Super Bowl LV
Current line from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill: KC -3 (56)
PickCenter What to know
Total passing yards for Mahomes: Over/under 315.5
Total passing yards for Brady: Over/under 295.5
Total sacks by both teams: Over/under 4
Total touchdowns in the game: Over/under 6.5
Favorites have covered in two straight Super Bowls and in three of the past four big games. In Super Bowl history, favorites are 27-25-2 straight up. And in each of the past 11 seasons, the winner has also covered the spread. Mahomes is 27-13-1 against the spread when he is not a double-digit favorite, but Brady is 41-17-1 against the spread as an underdog in his career, both best in the Super Bowl era.
Looking at the over/under, the past two Super Bowls fell short of the total, but it's 10-10 over the past 20 games. All time, it's also split at 26-26-1 (there was no total in Super Bowl I). -- David Bearman, ESPN Chalk
Read more: Betting nuggets ... Best bets for the Super Bowl ... Biggest bets at U.S. sportsbooks ... Prop bet scorecard ... 'Startling' amount bet on Super Bowl coin toss
Who is in, and who is out?
Injury reports: Chiefs Buccaneers
Chiefs receiver Sammy Watkins is optimistic that he will be able to play for the first time since Week 16 because of a calf injury, though he began the practice week on Wednesday as a limited participant. Running back Le'Veon Bell's sore knee makes his availability in doubt, though he has slipped down the depth chart and doesn't figure to get a big workload even if he plays. -- Teicher
Safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (ankle), receiver Antonio Brown (knee), safety Jordan Whitehead (shoulder) and linebacker Lavonte David (hamstring) have been practicing this week, but on a limited basis. With Winfield and Brown, the issue is monitoring swelling, while with Whitehead, it's more about the use of his arm. David suffered his injury in the third quarter against the Packers and played through it, so there seems to be less concern about him. -- Laine
Read more: Chiefs activate Robinson off reserve/COVID-19 list ... Bell, Watkins, Brown and Winfield expected to play in Super Bowl ... Chiefs LT Fisher out with torn Achilles ... Watkins optimistic about playing in Super Bowl
The coaches
Andy Reid, Chiefs
Reid ranks fifth on the all-time wins list for head coaches, but he's the only one in the top five without multiple championships. Sunday will mark his third Super Bowl appearance as a head coach (1-1). The Chiefs have averaged 27.2 points per game since he took over in 2013, the best mark in the AFC and second only to the Saints (28.0) in the NFL over that time.
Bruce Arians, Buccaneers
Per Elias, Arians will be the second-oldest head coach to reach the Super Bowl (behind Marv Levy). It's his second year as the coach of the Buccaneers after coming out of retirement in 2019. He has two Super Bowl titles as an assistant but has never won the big game as a head coach.
Read more: Fortune favors the bold for Arians ... Success, trust and burnt ends: Why everyone loves Reid ... Why the Bucs were the only team that could get Arians back to coaching ... Brady says everybody wants to win for Arians
How the Chiefs, Bucs got here
The Chiefs entered the 2020 season hot off a Super Bowl win and continued that momentum right out of the gate, winning 34-20 over Houston on opening night. They had to survive an overtime scare with the Chargers in Week 2 but moved swiftly to 4-0 to start the season. In mid-October, the Chiefs suffered their first loss of the season, giving up 40 points to the Raiders. Kansas City rattled off 10 straight wins from there before sitting starters in a Week 17 loss, having already wrapped up the AFC West and the No. 1 seed in the conference. The 14-2 Chiefs held off the Browns in the divisional round of the playoffs after Mahomes left the game, and then dismissed the Bills in the conference championship behind 172 receiving yards from Hill.
The Bucs' season began in the loss column, but they'd quickly right the ship after the Week 1 loss to the Saints and win seven of their next eight. A midseason stumble included a blowout by New Orleans (38-3), a close defeat to the Rams and that Week 12 loss to the Chiefs. But the Week 13 bye served its purpose, and the Buccaneers closed the season with four wins to lock up the No. 5 seed in the NFC and an 11-5 record. In the playoffs, Brady led Tampa Bay past Washington with 381 passing yards, then outdueled Drew Brees in the divisional round. And though Brady threw three interceptions against the Packers in the conference championship game, Tampa Bay won and reached the Super Bowl.
The Week 12 matchup: The Chiefs beat the Bucs earlier this season 27-24. This will be the 14th Super Bowl in which the teams also met in the regular season. The regular-season winner won seven of the previous 13 instances. In Week 12, Hill had 13 receptions for 269 yards and 3 TDs. The two teams combined for 807 passing yards, but neither reached 100 rushing yards.
What to know about the officiating
Referee Carl Cheffers will be working his second Super Bowl in five seasons, with an all-star crew that includes the first woman -- down judge Sarah Thomas -- to work the game. Cheffers' regular-season crew averaged an NFL-high 16 flags per game in 2020, a notable position given the leaguewide drop in penalties. He and his crew will take the field amid extreme scrutiny of the NFL officiating department following the championship round. (There were only six flags thrown in the NFC Championship Game, while the NFL's replay department reviewed and reversed an unreviewable play in the AFC Championship Game.) -- Kevin Seifert, national NFL writer
Read more: Sarah Thomas to become first woman to officiate at Super Bowl ... Explaining NFL officiating controversies from the playoffs
COVID-19 protocols in place
How is the NFL approaching the game?
The NFL has mandated that Chiefs and Buccaneers players must be tested twice daily for COVID-19 leading up to the Super Bowl. Any player who tests positive for the coronavirus will be ruled out for the game. But if a player is placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list and hasn't tested positive -- deemed a high-risk/close contact, as was the case with Demarcus Robinson and Daniel Kilgore of the Chiefs -- they have a chance to play if they continue to test negative. Both teams are working overtime to get to the season's finish line, with the Chiefs implementing a facility- and home-only policy. -- Jeremy Fowler, national NFL writer
Will there be fans?
The NFL announced updated plans this week to have 25,000 fans at Raymond James Stadium, where the normal capacity is 65,000. Of that total, 7,500 will be made up of vaccinated health workers who have received free tickets from the league. Most will be from the Tampa Bay area, but each of the league's 32 teams received an allotment for local awards. All fans will be required to wear masks, sit in pods that leave extra seats between unaffiliated parties and follow other COVID-19 protocols. -- Seifert
Read more: NFL testing twice daily for COVID-19 ahead of Super Bowl ... How the NFL navigated COVID-19 this season ... Tampa mayor issues outdoor mask order for Super Bowl ... Chiefs place Robinson, Kilgore on reserve/COVID-19 list ... Fauci warns against Super Bowl parties ... No COVID-19 scenario where Super Bowl LV would be moved ... Chiefs' barber tests positive amid haircuts, sources say
More preview must-reads
Even after all that, are you still hungry for more Super Bowl content? Check out our best stuff from the past two weeks.
Chiefs
Chiefs' return to Super Bowl validates mantra to 'Run it back'
Thompson: Even in a strange year, the Chiefs represent the best of K.C.
History says Chiefs likely will lose: Why it's so hard to repeat as Super Bowl champs
Why Chiefs' offensive line depth could decide Super Bowl
Have Hill and Kelce gotten better since burning Bucs in Week 12?
Buccaneers
Brady's Tampa Bay timeline: Events that defined his first season with the Bucs
Bucs' bye-week changes on defense key in propelling them to Super Bowl
How Pierre-Paul's incredible amputation comeback is about more than just him
From hot seat to Super Bowl: How GM Jason Licht built the Buccaneers